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Toronto Real Estate Board Market Recap – Q1 2013

Carl Minicucci — Wed, 22 May 2013 04:48:14 +0000

A review of the first quarter results for MLS resale market activity in the Greater Toronto Area, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Key areas of focus include:

Sales Trends and Forecast
Price Trends and Forecast
Condo Apartment Snapshot

This video provides a good methodical overview to the assumptions underlying trends and forecasts for the balance of 2013 and 2014, including a review of lending regulations, population trends, income and interest rate forecasts.

Portfolio Test Post 1

Carl Minicucci — Wed, 08 May 2013 14:39:49 +0000

GTA Real Estate Market Watch – April 2013

Carl Minicucci — Mon, 06 May 2013 04:04:14 +0000

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 9,811 sales through the TorontoMLS system in April 2013, representing a dip of two per cent in comparison to 10,021 transactions in April 2012. Both new listings during the month and active listings at the end of April were up on a year-over-year basis.

“Despite the headwinds we have experienced in the housing market this year, April sales came in quite
strong in comparison to last year. As we move through the spring and into the second half of 2013, the
demand for home ownership should continue to firm-up relative to last year,” said Toronto Real Estate
Board President Ann Hannah.

“It has been almost a year since the federal government enacted stricter mortgage lending guidelines. It
is realistic to surmise that some households, who originally put their decision to purchase on hold, are
once again looking to buy,” continued Ms. Hannah.

The average selling price for April 2013 transactions was $526,335 – up by two per cent in comparison to
April 2012. The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark Price was up by 2.9 per cent.

“The condominium apartment segment in the City of Toronto was a key driver of price growth in April, with
both the average selling price and the MLS HPI apartment index up on a year-over-year basis. The
improved condo sales picture, with Toronto sales down by only one per cent compared to last year,
suggests that interest in condo ownership may be improving,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior
Manager of Market Analysis.

While City of Toronto condominium apartments enjoyed a healthy price increase year over year, the same could not be said of the 905 which saw a 5.9% decrease. Unfortunately, that number is a loaded one and does not consider average sizes (among other things) but may still point to the dichotomy of urban city dwellers vs the needs of suburban families.

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Vaughan MLS real estate data – March 2013

Carl Minicucci — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 23:57:24 +0000

The results for Vaughan resale data in Vaughan are in for March 2013 and here are some notable observations:

There was a decrease in total unit sales from 354 in 2013 vs 477 in March 2012, representing a whopping 26% drop. When compared to the whole of the GTA which saw a 17% decrease year over year for March, Vaughan faired substantially behind. One might be inclined to point to a number of reasons (ex. tightening mortgage regulations) but the amount of inventory is not one of them. In absolute terms for example, Vaughan had 951 active listings in the month for 2013 compared to 727 in 2012.

There was an average price increase from February 2013 of 610,521 to 647,848 in March. This significant monthly increase was driven predominantly by the average price increase in detached and townhouse properties.

Drilling down further we note that March 2013 saw more than double the number of homes selling over the $1M , when compared to February thus driving up the average. Once again, an example of the danger of simply relying on “average data”. We see no impact thus far on new mortgage insurance rules impacting the sale of $1M+ homes. Q1 2013 saw 56 such sales compared to 53 in Q1 2012.

We see the avg months of supply on hand for Condo apartments to be the most alarming statistic. Currently there is just over a 5 month’s supply on hand. Given the number of actively marketed condo’s and development applications in the pipeline, the absorption levels will be something we’ll keep a watchful eye on.

Conclusion:

The local Vaughan market continues to offer more options which is welcomed news for buyers, particularly those who have been turned off by unsuccessful past bidding wars. Accordingly, sellers are well advised to take the extra steps to properly evaluate your home, prepare your home and execute a thorough marketing plan.

For a more detailed graphical overview of monthly charts and trends in Vaughan real estate (by housing type), please click here.

If you have any specific questions or comments, please feel free to contact me.

Until next month…

GTA Real Estate Market Watch – March 2013

Humber Valley Real Estate — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 13:18:12 +0000

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,765 transactions through the TorontoMLS system in March 2013 – down 17 per cent compared to 9,385 transactions in March 2012. This follows a 15% year over year decline in February 2013 and a 1% decline in January 2013. Notwithstanding this trend line, average prices continue to push forward.

When we drill down by housing type and broad region (i.e. 416 vs 905), you’ll note that the largest price movement was in the 416 Townhouse and Semi-Detached houses, most likely a result of both limited inventory for that specific product compared to high rise stock.

The average selling price in March was $519,879 – up by 3.8 per cent compared to March 2012. The average price in Q1 2013 was $508,066 – up by 3.2 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2012. “The average selling price and the MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up on a yearover-year basis across most home types, especially in the low-rise market segments where supply remains an issue. TREB’s average price forecast for 2013 remains at $515,000, representing a 3.5 per cent annual rate of growth,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

We still await Vaughan centric real estate results and will provide further commentary once available.

In the meantime, let’s take a look at a comparative snapshot of the March results across property type and broad region (905 and 416) for both 2013 and 2012:

Here’s the official commentary from the Toronto Real Estate Board: (We’ll be interested in noting next month’s commentary and whether the “Good Friday holiday impact” is acknowledged on the flip side results of April)

While the year-over-year dip in March sales followed the trend that has unfolded since mid-way through 2012, it is also important to note that the Good Friday holiday was in March this year versus April in 2012. Generally speaking, there are fewer sales reported on statutory holidays and weekends. In the first quarter of 2013, sales amounted to 17,678 – down by 14 per cent compared to Q1 2012. “Home ownership remains affordable for a household earning the average income in the Greater Toronto Area. There are many willing buyers in the marketplace today. While some households have put their decision to purchase on hold as a result of stricter lending guidelines or the additional Land Transfer Tax in the City of Toronto, other households simply haven’t been able to find the right house due to a shortage of listings in some market segments,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Ann Hannah.

Focus on Maple – Vaughan Mills Mall

Humber Valley Real Estate — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 18:04:23 +0000

As their website so perfectly describes, “it’s the thrill of the find that draws savvy shoppers to Vaughan Mills, where an exceptional mix of luxury outlets and specialty concept stores make it a top destination Vaughan and the surrounding Greater Toronto Area.”

In addition to wide variety of traditional retail outlets, Vaughan Mills also offers world-class entertainment and shopping experiences such as Hollywood’s Lucky Strike Lanes, Pro Hockey Life, Bass Pro Shops Outdoor World.

Vaughan Mills will soon be nearly 14,000 square metres larger.

Ivanhoe Cambridge, which owns the Vaughan shopping centre recently announced plans for an $87-million expansion, with construction scheduled to start this spring.

The expansion will provide space for another 50 stores. Once complete, the mall will have 19 major tenants and 250 stores in just over 104,000 square metres of retail space. The existing food court will be re-designed and an entertainment court added.

New tenants will include a LEGOLAND Discovery Centre (now open!).

The interior and exterior of the building will get a facelift to add “architectural appeal” and the parking lot will be expanded to add 450 spots.

The mall was built in 2004 and draws some 13.5 million shoppers each year.

The mall offers a number of luxury shopping outlets including such familiar brands as:

Holt Renfrew Last Call, A|X Armani Exchange Outlet, Hugo Boss Factory Store, Banana Republic Factory Store, Michael Kors Outlet, Joe Fresh, BCBG Max Azria Outlet, Tommy Hilfiger Outlet, Calvin Klein Outlet, Lacoste Outlet…and so many more.

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February 2013 MLS resale results

Carl Minicucci — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 21:06:11 +0000

GTA & Vaughan Real Estate Market Watch – February 2013

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS® reported 5,759 sales through the TorontoMLS system in February 2013 – a decline of 15 per cent in comparison to February 2012. By comparison to the whole, Vaughan reported 273 sales in February 2013 which represented a decline of 22 per cent. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the amount of active inventory in Vaughan shifted accordingly from approximately 1.6 months in 2012 to 3 months in 2013.

The average selling price for February 2013 was $510,580 – up two per cent in comparison to February 2012. Again by comparison, Vaughan average selling price essentially remained flat. If we drill down to housing type in Vaughan for example, the item that stands out for me is the semi-detached average home prices in Vaughan which actually saw a increase of about 7.4%. I would temper some of the increase as a result of the geographic distribution of sales, but the overall trend still holds true. Median prices follow suit so we can more safely rule out outlier data points.

I continue to maintain that the semi-detached and townhouse products remain the most sought after product in Vaughan. Given the balance of affordability, price/square foot and longer term utility, it remains the preferred alternative to fully detached, which is fast becoming an unattainable proposition for many.

“The share of sales and dollar volume accounted for by luxury detached homes in the City of Toronto was lower this February compared to last. This contributed to a more modest pace of overall average price growth for the GTA as a whole,” said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Ann Hannah.

“Stricter mortgage lending guidelines that precluded government backed mortgages on homes sold for over one million dollars and the City of Toronto’s additional upfront land transfer tax arguably played a role in the slower pace of luxury detached home sales,” added Ms. Hannah.

The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark price covering all major home types eliminates fluctuations in price growth due to changes in sales mix. The Composite Benchmark price was up by more than three per cent on a year-over-year basis in February.

“We will undoubtedly experience some volatility in price growth for some market segments in 2013. However, months of inventory in the low-rise market segment will remain low, resulting in average price growth above three per cent for the TREB market area this year. Our current average price forecast is $515,000 for all home types combined in 2013,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

For detailed results see: Vaughan housing Charts and Greater Toronto Area housing charts

MLS Home Price Index (MHPI) vs. Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ (TNHPI)

Carl Minicucci — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 03:32:22 +0000

I thought I’d take an opportunity to provide a little background and clarity on various housing price indexes that now make regularly make the press (not to be confused with typical monthly MLS real estate sales data released by the Toronto Real Estate Board.)

The MLS Home Price Index was developed and maintained by the Canadian Real Estate Association (“CREA”), based on a model developed by the Altus Group. It was created to provide an alternative to existing average/median based pricing data, often criticized as being much too simplistic and potentially misleading in providing informative resale housing market updates.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ was developed and is maintained on a collaborative effort by Teranet (the exclusive provider of online property registration in Ontario) and the National Bank of Canada. The site was created to offer an independent and alternative representation of home price trends, again in response to simplistic median and average based pricing models. It was also created to form a benchmark index used to sell linked financial products to investors.

The MHPI measure is calculated using a sophisticated statistical model that is a hybrid of both the “repeat sales” and “hedonic price” (which breaks down prices into components) approaches. More specifically, the MHPI tracks price levels at a point in time relative to price levels in a base period for one- and two-storey single family homes, townhouse/row units, and apartment units. A composite MLS® HPI is also calculated for the collection of these housing categories in each of the five housing markets tracked by the index.

CREA’s claim is that it is “the best and purest way of determining house price trends in the housing market.”
TNHPI is strictly based on the “repeat sales methodology,” which its creators cite as the most reliable and robust approach for tracking the housing market. To be included in the calculation, properties must have been sold at least twice. The two prices are used to measure the increase or decrease in property value in the period between the two transactions.

The MHPI differs from the TNHPI in several ways.

The MHPI is able to access raw MLS databases from participating real estate boards that provides for a distinct advantage. By utilizing a more comprehensive dataset from which to draw data analysis, both qualitative and quantitative housing features are considered. The TNHPI instead relies on data as provided through property records of public land registries, which are not nearly as robust. Accordingly, MHPI is able to provide segregated index reporting by property type for example (i.e. 1 storey, 2 storey, townhouse, apartment)

The TNHPI does not specifically take into account renovations or improvements that may have been made to the property between the two sales but instead relies on “scrubbing” such data sets based on statistics. Furthermore, the TNHPI is reported on a one month time lag from actual results. The MHPI data is available soon after each month end.

Unlike the MHPI which is produced by the Canadian Real Estate Association, the TNHPI is considered to be a more independent analysis and free from conflict (whether actual or in appearance)

Although I believe the MHPI index to be a more effective and informative Canadian housing price index, it is always prudent to consider multiple sources in any analysis rather than exclusively relying on broad based consolidated MLS data.

Hyperlocal Vaughan real estate data

Carl Minicucci — Mon, 19 Nov 2012 19:37:28 +0000

When it comes to making an informed real estate investment decision, national/provincial level real estate statistics are often of little value.

Implicit in the real estate adage location, location, location is the need to consider the same when it comes to data and real estate analysis.

Unfortunately, finding local data like this isn’t readily available. Because it is a narrow subset of the greater market, it is also information that is not often covered by media, local or otherwise. Luckily through the proliferation of technology, people like me are given an opportunity to provide a hyperlocal view and appreciation of the market.

That said, I thought it would be useful to share a drill down of selected Vaughan real estate data based on the Toronto Real Estate Board’s (TREB) new community based districts which include: Crestwood-Springfarm, East Woodbridge, Brownridge, Uplands, Kleinburg, Beverly Glen, Lakeview Estates, Elder Mills, Glen Shields, Sonoma Heights, Patterson, Maple, Vellore Village, Vaughan Grove, Islington Woods, West Woodbridge, Rural Vaughan and Concord.

For reference, TREB has classified Vaughan communities based on the following map layers (click for a larger image):

You can also browse a dynamic map by clicking on the TREB Real Estate Community Map

Taking a view below, I’ve compiled average price data and unit sales comparisons for each of the Vaughan communities based on Q4/11 and Q3/12.

(Note: Avg price for Concord not available as no statistics are reported by TREB when transactions number 2 or less)

Before you are tempted to draw conclusions, keep in mind there may be a number of things at play here that can drive the respective price changes between periods (ex. sale profile by housing type, new housing stock or low/high outlier sales). Although this information is available and can be further scrutinized, the point here is that the above data is a better representation than what was available in the past wherein the data was much more aggregated.

As always, questions and comments are welcomed.

Vaughan French Immersion School Information

Carl Minicucci — Mon, 12 Nov 2012 19:38:02 +0000

French Immersion continues to gain popularity among young families with children about to enter (or already in) the public school system in Vaughan.

In my daughter’s school for example, there are currently 3 French Immersion classes in grade 1 compared to 1 English-track only. Accordingly to school administration at the school, I’m told there has yet to be one single student who has withdrawn from the program to date. That would seem to speak to parents’ satisfaction.

Further information from the Ministry of Education on French immersion can be found here.

Registration for Grade 1 French immersion typically occurs in the early part of the calendar year. Parent information sessions are currently scheduled and set to occur in the near future. FYI, I have noted all Vaughan French Immersion schools below along with corresponding contact data and parent night sessions where made available.

Should you have any questions further questions, please contact the York Region Catholic District School Board or the York Region Public District School Board.